Musk endeavours

[dealtn]

It is very easy to have confirmation bias confirmed by selecting a few supportive pieces of evidence & then believe that that they are the truth.

Do you have mirrors in your house?

[odysseus2000]

Excellent 1 hour 4 mins tour of SpaceX manufacturing facility at Starbase with the Every Day Astronaught:

https://youtu.be/aFqjoCbZ4ik?si=lnjI7tyql7ob09XG

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Traditional media are in trouble:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/180516049 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Maybe all the naysayers about X were a little incorrect.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla weekly reservations well up:

https://cnevpost.com/2024/06/25/china-e ... %3A%20TSLA)%20had,of%20more%20than%20950%2C000%20vehicles.

Regards,

[Howard]

Tesla weekly reservations well up:

https://cnevpost.com/2024/06/25/china-e ... %3A%20TSLA)%20had,of%20more%20than%20950%2C000%20vehicles.

Regards,

I'm not sure you understand the significance of this post.

What are "Tesla weekly reservations"?

Can you define the term or have you just made it up?

Would you look back at your source and explain what you mean and how significant it is given Tesla's widely varying weekly sales figures. Aren't small fluctuations over a few days just noise.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Tesla weekly reservations well up:

https://cnevpost.com/2024/06/25/china-e ... %3A%20TSLA)%20had,of%20more%20than%20950%2C000%20vehicles.

Regards,

I'm not sure you understand the significance of this post.

What are "Tesla weekly reservations"?

Can you define the term or have you just made it up?

Would you look back at your source and explain what you mean and how significant it is given Tesla's widely varying weekly sales figures. Aren't small fluctuations over a few days just noise.

regards

Howard

Sorry, didn't check what I wrote closely. I was intending to say weekly insurance reservations.

Yes, they fluctuate and have done so for yonks given that Giga China supplies both China and world markets.

The primary point is that these insurance registrations are not falling off a cliff as some have suggested but are bouncing around as they always have and are currently the best week of 2024 so far.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tour of the SpaceX launch with Elon Musk & then an interview with him after the last star ship flight (32:53). Some super interesting stuff:

https://youtu.be/InJOlT6WdHc?si=8Yn5C9s0j68cocBX

Regards,

[Howard]

Obviously this is just the opinion of a competitor who has experience of developing a self driving system in China.

But one fact stands out. There are around 300 million e-scooters sharing the roads in China.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla deals with this problem. We can review progress in a few months to see if it is easily solved.

"China's 300 million e-scooters to be major challenge for Tesla FSD, says Xpeng exec"

regards

Howard

https://cnevpost.com/2024/06/27/china-3 ... tesla-fsd/

[odysseus2000]

Polestar losing money & now facing excessive US taxes & shortly more European taxes too:

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/polestar-loss-deepens

Anyone buying a polestar must become concerned that they will end up with a Fiskar, a brand that went bankrupt so that there are now parts or service available.

This is horrible for Polestar, but likely good for profitable BEV makers.

Regards,

[Howard]

Troy Teslike is forecasting that Tesla deliveries in Q2 will be around 423,000. So around 9% lower than Q2 2023 which was 466,000. He claims his previous forecasts have less than 3% error.

If he is right, this would suggest that H1 deliveries are around 810,000. Around 9% lower than the H1 2023 figure of 889,000.

Given further price cutting in Q2, the effect on margins will be interesting.

Tesla should release actual figures tomorrow.

regards

Howard

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/ ... 5903383576

[odysseus2000]

443,956

https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1808 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Well ahead of Wall Street consensus of 438,000 & 9.4 GW of energy, record high.

Tesla shares currently up over 5% in the pre-market.

Regards,

[Howard]

So Troy Teslike blotted his copybook and his error was around 5%. Too pessimistic!

Tesla deliveries were only down 4.7% over Q2 last year which was better than most forecasts.

Their sales in USA were encouraging and inventory was reduced. China sales were also better than expected.

Troy Teslike and others suggested that reduced leasing costs, financed by Tesla, along with other price incentives helped sales.

regards

Howard

[Adamski]

Tesla shares currently up over 5% in the pre-market.

Regards,

Tesla up 10.2% yesterday, up 30.3% in the past month. Sales dip again for two quarters in a row. But why let facts get in the way of a good story. The stock is up 30% because deliveries were not as bad a feared

The interesting thing is when the q2 results come out. The sales have held up due to near zero interest on financing, which will hurt margins.

So I'd expect a correction if reacting to results, or possibly another jump up. AI, robotaxis, ... etc the bullish retail investors (dare I say cultists) love the hype story. But question is how long can the optimism last in the face of negative real world results.

[88V8]

In place of FSD... just use a standard car and a robot.
Love the scissorhand steering action in the opening sequence...

Could be a viable path for Tesla.

V8

[odysseus2000]

In place of FSD... just use a standard car and a robot.
Love the scissorhand steering action in the opening sequence...

Could be a viable path for Tesla.

V8

The problem with the biped robot solution is that it is limited like a human to two eyes and also by the reaction times brought on by the inertia of moving all components in the arms and hands along with the robot arms/hands having no redundancy and back up if something fails. A further issue is that the cost of a robot has lots of things that are not essential for driving, giving it multiple possibilities but for that there is a cost.

The Tesla solution is designed to be multi 'eye' with very low lag times in the actuators which are multiple redundant and only what is needed is made so that the cost is also less.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla shares currently up over 5% in the pre-market.

Regards,

Tesla up 10.2% yesterday, up 30.3% in the past month. Sales dip again for two quarters in a row. But why let facts get in the way of a good story. The stock is up 30% because deliveries were not as bad a feared

The interesting thing is when the q2 results come out. The sales have held up due to near zero interest on financing, which will hurt margins.

So I'd expect a correction if reacting to results, or possibly another jump up. AI, robotaxis, ... etc the bullish retail investors (dare I say cultists) love the hype story. But question is how long can the optimism last in the face of negative real world results.

There are many factors at play here.

Battery prices have dropped significantly so that the cost of goods sold, which has a lot of battery price in it, is coming down. Whether this offsets the zero interest financing is unclear, but it helps.

While Tesla sales this quarter are down about 5% this is in a hard market where Fiskar has gone bust, Polestar is in desperate financial condition, Rivian needed VW to keep going, Ford, GM and rest of legacy are struggling to sell electric cars. Chinese makers now have a 100% tax penalty on imports into the US and around 30% into Europe. Given all these macro trends, Tesla are doing very well.

Then there is the uncertainty over FSD. Competitors like Waymo have had robot drive cars on the roads for years now, but their cars are expensive and geofenced. It is still unknown if Tesla general purpose self drive will work, but for now it is by far the best in all the many tests I have seen.

Meanwhile Tesla energy has doubled in sales and one can expect more when the Chinese factory comes on line.

Optimus is now doing some factory jobs and has been built for mass manufacturing.

Meanwhile all the uncertainties and potential loss of Elon Musk due to denial of his pay award have been mostly resolved so that risk from this is mostly gone.

The stock price always looks ahead and investors are now pricing in that Tesla is doing very well in a hard market and has several exciting products to come.

Of course if you think I am a cultist, divorced from reality then you can short the stock.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Munro is excited about a new cell that has better properties than a 46x80:

https://youtu.be/yZhKqpleAXM?si=Dit7Uq892Eu6ApPe

If this is correct it will quickly supersede most current batteries.

Regards,