First England
![Image](https://imgur.com/h0hVRF9.jpg)
The published deaths and the projected deaths (based on admissions) both continue to decline, but on quite different trajectories. Clearly the simple relation of published deaths being a fraction of past admissions is not working. Strange - since looking back to my first attempt at this simple model in December 2020, and following through with parameter adjustments when new variants and vaccines arrived, there has usually been a good correlation.
Anyway - lets not complain about good news.
And now for Scotland
![Image](https://imgur.com/Ny6YHbG.jpg)
Given the poorer statistical accuracy, there still seems to be a reasonable correlation between the published and projected deaths - although a slightly reduced multiplier would help. The projected deaths (based on admissions) now seems to be levelling off. Assuming the Scottish population is approximately one tenth of the English population, we see that the ratio of published deaths is is around this value - within the statistical accuracy. And the projected English deaths are now continuing to fall towards the pro rata of Scottish deaths.
So currently good news all round. But what will be the effect of looser restrictions? Hopefully, very little. But I certainly prefer the more cautious approach in Scotland to that in England. This caution may be age related. Both myself and my wife are in the 75+ range - so we should be getting a second booster, probably in April.