Coronavirus - Macro Investment Aspects Only

[blobby]

I'm loving the analysis posted by Chris Martenson on a YouTube channel. I think this link may work:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/why-covi ... attention/

You might think this is fake news, but actually it seems like the opposite, exposing the rubbish statistics being issued by Iran for example.

From a stock market point of view I'm guessing shares which following the market like banks will take a hammering as well as travel and leisure. I'll be looking out for a few bargains in a few weeks time.

[look]

italian doctor explains what remedies he used with sucess and tells his daughters ask hin not to come back home!

https://www.corriere.it/esteri/20_febbr ... 9e1e.shtml

[johnhemming]

In italian:
Perfino mia figlia mi ha detto di non tornare a casa perché ha paura che io la possa contagiare

I have the google translate as:
Even my daughter told me not to go home because she is afraid that I could infect her.

Italian is perhaps my 5th or 6th language, but I think google is right.

[GoSeigen]

Trump today: "“We are down to -- we’re really down to probably 10,” Trump said. “Most of the people are outside of danger right now.”



GS

Moderator Message:
RS: Overly political statement removed. Better stated on Polite Discussion rather than here.

[Stan]

I suppose this thread is the nearest on here to a daily a daily trading/Investing thread.

Assuming so I just wanted to add my two penny worth, and say that at times like these that with big drops in prices are actually a good buying opportunity if we carefully select the shares already on our watch list that we have fancied.

============================

ftse 100 is down another 2% today .

i am waiting for buying opportunities.....

As I say only you know what’s on your watch list so choose carefully and buy when your comfortable to do so, I added to a another account the same share of bought on Monday because I did my research and have been waiting for ex div day or better still conditions like we have now.

[Midsmartin]

I feel that there will be cheaper buying days ahead yet. It appears that asymptomatic people can spread the virus; the Chinese government has the authority to clamp down enough to control the disease. In the middle east or less developed countries this control is probably lacking.

To me it seems reasonably likely that this will become far more widespread than it is now. Whether it disappears as fast as it arrived, or whether it will remain with us perpetually like a variant of 'flu, who knows.

[johnhemming]

From an investment perspective the decisions are investment decisions.

[redsturgeon]

For the past three years I have been going to a particular pub every Tuesday night to play poker with some friends. last night we were the only customers in the pub from 9pm until about 10.30 when a couple of regulars who always come in at that time arrived. This is the first time in three years the pub has been so quiet. I wonder if people are already taking steps to isolate themselves from possible sources of contamination.

John

[fca2019]

For the past three years I have been going to a particular pub every Tuesday night to play poker... I wonder if people are already taking steps to isolate themselves from possible sources of contamination

I think people are drinking less, and spending more time on social media, on their phones and devices. Also for health reasons. Not just millenials but olders people as well . Pubs are shutting as the culture us/ has changed.

[onthemove]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know if the monitoring includes random testing outside of suspected contact cases?
.

To answer my own question - apparently they are starting doing so now...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51641243
"Tests for coronavirus are being increased to include people displaying flu-like symptoms at 11 hospitals and 100 GP surgeries across the UK.
The tests will provide an "early warning" if the virus is spreading, Public Health England medical director Prof Paul Cosford said (…) These will target some patients with coughs, fevers or shortness of breath, regardless of whether they have travelled to a place where the virus is spreading."

[Bubblesofearth]

The WHO's original estimate was a 2% fatality rate, but currently coronavirus is running at around 9% according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
(but it does seem to be coming down as a % as the number of cases increases).

VRD

Current deaths are 3.4% cases. However, whilst deaths are probably fairly accurate, cases is likely to be a significant underestimate because of the likely large number of people who are either asymptomatic or simply not reporting due to mild symptoms.

So 2% death rate still looks a reasonable, or even high, estimate. Which is, of course, still pretty horrific if this does become a pandemic in the same manner as 'flu. I.e. if around 1/5 of the population of the World got it (I think that was the estimate for swine 'flu) then that would represent over 100m deaths.

BoE

[vrdiver]

The WHO's original estimate was a 2% fatality rate, but currently coronavirus is running at around 9% according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Current deaths are 3.4% cases.

Could you quote your source? I'm curious as to the disparity between the figure I've used (from the quoted link) and yours. I'm wondering if there's a different methodology for deriving it, as the two are so different!

To be clear - the figure I've quoted is deaths from resolved cases, not deaths from total infected population (i.e. the 9% is the proportion of those who have died vs those who have recovered, not those currently infected whose outcome is yet to be determined).

TIA

VRD

[Bubblesofearth]

Could you quote your source? I'm curious as to the disparity between the figure I've used (from the quoted link) and yours. I'm wondering if there's a different methodology for deriving it, as the two are so different!

To be clear - the figure I've quoted is deaths from resolved cases, not deaths from total infected population (i.e. the 9% is the proportion of those who have died vs those who have recovered, not those currently infected whose outcome is yet to be determined).

TIA

VRD

Same source;

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I quoted deaths/total cases. However, both this stat and the one you quoted are misleading. There are some good links on the site to how mortality can be estimated and the 2-3% range seems to be ball-park at the moment. However, the big unknown is total number infected which would clearly have a huge affect on the true figure.

BoE

[odysseus2000]

San Francisco declares "state of emergency." Probably to allow use of powers that are only available when such a declaration has been made:

https://www.businessinsider.com/san-fra ... en-a-hit-1

Regards,

[stevensfo]

We live about an hour west of Milano and on Sunday there were signs of some panic-buying in supermarkets, though people seemed to calm down on Monday when more news arrived. From my own travels around, all supermarkets look normal but I've heard from colleagues that as soon as someone sees a slightly empty shelf with only a few items left, then they tend to go crazy and buy the rest.

One sad consequence is that many great chinese/japanese/fusion restaurants are clearly suffering and our favourite was closed last night (Son's birthday). We did however find a nice sushi restaurant - all you can eat for €21, something my sons seemed to appreciate but I don't think I want to go again for a while!

So far, so good. As I told my wife, who's skiing in the Dolomites, no shortage whatsoever of the essentials: beer, wine, gin and vodka....oh and my coffee capsules. She didn't seem to appreciate my humour!

Steve

[jackdaww]

i enquired today in a morrisons pharmacy about facemasks .

i was told none available anywhere here .

DAK of any availability ?

[johnhemming]

There are various types of facemask.
Surgical masks which are really mainly cosmetic and more serve to stop people infecting others rather than protecting the wearer, FPP2 (=N95) and FPP3 masks which may protect people. Realistically, however, people should also wear goggles if they wish to be protected. There are then questions as to handwash and the like.

Hence you need to consider which sort of mask you are talking about.

[odysseus2000]

i enquired today in a morrisons pharmacy about facemasks .

i was told none available anywhere here .

DAK of any availability ?

About 10 days ago my dog was having her annual inspection.

A oriental lady came to reception and asked to buy facemarks, apparently even then there were none in all the pharmacies she had tried.

A vet gave her a handful and she wanted more but her request was politely refused.

As far as I understand it China has banned export of face masks and various industrial companies have set up face mask production lines to satisfy internal Chinese demand.

Regards,

[johnhemming]

I think this virus might be around for sometime yet, but I don't think it's worth the vast amount of headline space now.

If you have a lot of ACE2 cells this is a serious threat.

[johnhemming]

Cars are a serious threat.

You can see a car when it is driving at you.