Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

This is all the old system: 11.n, not the new version 12.4, so the whole thing is obsolete & tells us nothing about the latest software.

Regards,

This is the system which Tesla fans thought was so wonderful until only a couple of weeks ago. The new release uses the same sensors and cameras fitted to the brand new 2024 model which failed the low speed tests in the video. Release 12.4 is yet to be tested in real life situations.

If you look at RS Symons initial test of 12.4 you will see it thinks it is on a US road and it doesn't look very comfortable in UK conditions.

However, the key test for the software is in China and the comparison with rival brands. Let's hope it works.

regards

Howard

You are not understanding neural nets & how they are trained.

The neural net is trained on data from cars driving in a specific country creating a software/hardware combination that is specifically tailored to be a general solution in the country of training. Further down the line the neural nets will be trained for a general solution anywhere on the planet & then the moon as well.

Tesla have trained the 12.n’s for the US, not for anywhere else. The test cars going to China will be trained for Chinese road signs, conditions etc.

Once good operation is achieved in the trained for country, the neural net training will be expanded to create the general solution.

The process is identical to how humans drive. Some one who learned to drive in the US who wants to drive in the UK needs to learn UK signs, change of the side of the road to drive on, speed limits, etc etc & vice versa.

What would be useful is a direct comparison between the various brands both on the roads & on test tracks were dummy humans & objects can be risked as potential collision objects.

The prize from all of these tests is a transport system that is much safer than the one we now have.

Regards,

[Adamski]

"UC Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong suggested that Tesla’s market success is now largely dependent on Musk’s ability to keep making promises, regardless of the company’s actual delivery, the economist wrote in an op-ed for Project Syndicate.

“From the standpoint of its suppliers, employees, and customers, it is a source of income and production,” he said. “And from the standpoint of Wall Street speculators, it is a bouncing ball in a roulette wheel: a tech-bubble casino play.”

DeLong, in an op-ed, pointed out that Musk, after unlocking his entire pay package in 2018, has been promoting ideas that the company has yet to deliver on, such as full self-driving, humanoid robots, and an artificial intelligence supercomputer.

“For all the current Tesla shareholders planning to offload their holdings in the next couple of years, everything hinges on the company succeeding as a meme stock, and Musk is diligently working toward that goal,” DeLong argued.

“Since there are virtually no long-term Tesla shareholders, the market does not particularly care that the company lacks a CEO who is trying to build it into an enduring profit-making organization,” he added." I agree 100%!

[odysseus2000]

"UC Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong suggested that Tesla’s market success is now largely dependent on Musk’s ability to keep making promises, regardless of the company’s actual delivery, the economist wrote in an op-ed for Project Syndicate.

“From the standpoint of its suppliers, employees, and customers, it is a source of income and production,” he said. “And from the standpoint of Wall Street speculators, it is a bouncing ball in a roulette wheel: a tech-bubble casino play.”

DeLong, in an op-ed, pointed out that Musk, after unlocking his entire pay package in 2018, has been promoting ideas that the company has yet to deliver on, such as full self-driving, humanoid robots, and an artificial intelligence supercomputer.

“For all the current Tesla shareholders planning to offload their holdings in the next couple of years, everything hinges on the company succeeding as a meme stock, and Musk is diligently working toward that goal,” DeLong argued.

“Since there are virtually no long-term Tesla shareholders, the market does not particularly care that the company lacks a CEO who is trying to build it into an enduring profit-making organization,” he added." I agree 100%!

Interesting!

Tesla has the largest retail base of long term share holders of any stock as shown by the recent votes cast with large numbers of retail share holders on the previously agreed pay package being reinstated & the move to Texas from Delaware.

The statements made by Bradford DeLong are demonstrably false. Whether he is just ill informed or acting on behalf of someone else is unclear.

A CEO’s job is to make profits for shareholders & Tesla have demonstrated that by focusing on future technology which naysayers have said was impossible, huge profits have been made & shareholders have been well rewarded. The cost of the recent salary award to the CEO is carried on the books at a fully dillutive $2b, it is now over $50b due to the stock price rise & does not cost share holders any more & indeed share holders will get the exercise price if the CEO does get the share options & exercises.

The amount of misinformation about Tesla has reached yet higher levels as the naysayers put out relentless eye & ear candy to support their agendas.

Hubris, greed & stupidity are the foundational quantities that informed investors can use to make huge profits by buying into the extreme fear, uncertainty & doubt. However, most investors will not do the needed research & will instead rely on the candy put out by naysayers & miss out on huge profits.

Regards,

[ayshfm1]

Musk is unstable and petulant. However the premium share price is build on a foundation that this mercurial individual will be able to metaphorically turn sand into gold.

I am still waiting for full self drive and expect to continue waiting for many years to come and in beta it kills people. I find the cyber truck ridiculous, can't find any meaning full data on the Tesla semi and note the new roadster is still not in production. The hyper loop with even with my limited grasp of physics, looked stupid, I saw Elon on a video saying "It's not that hard..." I'm either smarter than him or he was lying, because it demonstrably is very hard. The boring company which was suppose to make tunnels faster than anyone else, doesn't. I could go on - he's a snake oil salesman.

I was interested in what Vanguard would do and reached the conclusion they would vote for the pay deal. The reason, the share price has a value more akin to a car company without the Musk premium and he was making it clear that no pay deal no Musk premium.

The next broken promise is going to be the robo-taxies and we only have to wait until August to find out what excuses will be trotted out to explain another missed delivery date.

[Howard]

This is the system which Tesla fans thought was so wonderful until only a couple of weeks ago. The new release uses the same sensors and cameras fitted to the brand new 2024 model which failed the low speed tests in the video. Release 12.4 is yet to be tested in real life situations.

If you look at RS Symons initial test of 12.4 you will see it thinks it is on a US road and it doesn't look very comfortable in UK conditions.

However, the key test for the software is in China and the comparison with rival brands. Let's hope it works.

regards

Howard

You are not understanding neural nets & how they are trained.

The neural net is trained on data from cars driving in a specific country creating a software/hardware combination that is specifically tailored to be a general solution in the country of training. Further down the line the neural nets will be trained for a general solution anywhere on the planet & then the moon as well.

Tesla have trained the 12.n’s for the US, not for anywhere else. The test cars going to China will be trained for Chinese road signs, conditions etc.

Once good operation is achieved in the trained for country, the neural net training will be expanded to create the general solution.

The process is identical to how humans drive. Some one who learned to drive in the US who wants to drive in the UK needs to learn UK signs, change of the side of the road to drive on, speed limits, etc etc & vice versa.

What would be useful is a direct comparison between the various brands both on the roads & on test tracks were dummy humans & objects can be risked as potential collision objects.

The prize from all of these tests is a transport system that is much safer than the one we now have.

Regards,

One doesn't need to understand neural networks to suggest that, if you are right, this could be a massive insurance liability!

V12 is now on cars in the UK and you are stating that it is not trained for UK roads. If it is a cause of an accident what is the defence?

As you will see from the video link below, it is by no means perfect on a UK road. Boats and vans look like American lorries the visual display is quite different from reality.

You can claim to understand neural networks but I don't think you are aware of the legal/insurance impact of your statement. This is a key issue for investors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlhtCAfnTiU

Even in the USA, V12.4.1 has many flaws. Just look at the video linked below.

If you were a cop following the Tesla, you would be forgiven for believing it was being driven under the influence. Weaving from lane to lane, freezing at a right turn and falsely indicating were just some of the problems. And this is filmed a few days ago on spacious roads in the USA. Just one example. But a serious investor should research a few more videos before commenting on the V12 capabilities.

Tesla FSD 12.4.1 is NOT what I expected…

Watch from the start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyOV_ECO-QE&t=9s

regards

Howard

[doolally]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyOV_ECO-QE&t=9s
Howard

An interesting comment under the video.... The software does not look at the road surface. It drives straight over potholes, raised manhole covers etc, which a human would sensibly drive around. I wonder what it does with speedbumps.
doolally

[Howard]

"UC Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong suggested that Tesla’s market success is now largely dependent on Musk’s ability to keep making promises, regardless of the company’s actual delivery, the economist wrote in an op-ed for Project Syndicate.

“From the standpoint of its suppliers, employees, and customers, it is a source of income and production,” he said. “And from the standpoint of Wall Street speculators, it is a bouncing ball in a roulette wheel: a tech-bubble casino play.”

DeLong, in an op-ed, pointed out that Musk, after unlocking his entire pay package in 2018, has been promoting ideas that the company has yet to deliver on, such as full self-driving, humanoid robots, and an artificial intelligence supercomputer.

“For all the current Tesla shareholders planning to offload their holdings in the next couple of years, everything hinges on the company succeeding as a meme stock, and Musk is diligently working toward that goal,” DeLong argued.

“Since there are virtually no long-term Tesla shareholders, the market does not particularly care that the company lacks a CEO who is trying to build it into an enduring profit-making organization,” he added." I agree 100%!

Interesting!

Tesla has the largest retail base of long term share holders of any stock as shown by the recent votes cast with large numbers of retail share holders on the previously agreed pay package being reinstated & the move to Texas from Delaware.

The statements made by Bradford DeLong are demonstrably false. Whether he is just ill informed or acting on behalf of someone else is unclear.

A CEO’s job is to make profits for shareholders & Tesla have demonstrated that by focusing on future technology which naysayers have said was impossible, huge profits have been made & shareholders have been well rewarded. The cost of the recent salary award to the CEO is carried on the books at a fully dillutive $2b, it is now over $50b due to the stock price rise & does not cost share holders any more & indeed share holders will get the exercise price if the CEO does get the share options & exercises.

The amount of misinformation about Tesla has reached yet higher levels as the naysayers put out relentless eye & ear candy to support their agendas.

Hubris, greed & stupidity are the foundational quantities that informed investors can use to make huge profits by buying into the extreme fear, uncertainty & doubt. However, most investors will not do the needed research & will instead rely on the candy put out by naysayers & miss out on huge profits.

Regards,

Ody,

Are you doing "the needed research" or just relying on candy?

Did you carefully select he video you showed of a V 12.4.1 test?

Investors need to decide if FSD is improving and the following suggests it still has a long way to go to be better than Level 2.

I’ve looked at three videos and they show some pretty serious flaws. Many other critical videos are available.

Following videos show V 12.4.1 driving mainly on wide roads with little traffic and well behaved pedestrians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpOjlm8PlDY

Driving in Chicago with V12.4.1

5 minutes: Wrong lane failure on a multi lane highway meant the driver had to grab the wheel. Luckily he appeared to anticipate that the software would fail at this moment.

6 minutes: Dangerous repeat of wrong lane failure. Last minute swerve by driver to save situation.

11 minutes: Wrong direction.

As the driver suggests at the end, despite the empty roads (very early morning) the car drove too slowly and often hesitated.

US cops would be justified in suspecting DUI!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OTOypREAEQ&t=1104s

5 minutes: Car hits the brakes - confused by yellow flashing light. Problem exceeding speed limits.

6.30 minutes Car goes too close to pedestrian.

7 minutes: Car hits pothole too fast.

10 minutes onwards: Car drives too slowly. At 13 minutes the car is painfully hesitant causing following car to undertake.

15 minutes: lane swerving

DUI candidate.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aL5VY2GaZDo

Early morning zero traffic very wide roads.

2 minutes: Winding road, driver has to catch yoke to stop car hitting nearside verge.

4 minutes: Confused by sunshine.

5 minutes: Lane weaving. Driver complains that the software is unpredictable.

10 minutes: Left turn painfully hesitant.

12 minutes: Confused by morning sunshine.

Driver says “not off to the great start we all expected”

24 minutes: Hilarious inability to park in a massive car park which is only about 5% filled. Driver expresses disappointment that latest software is not as good as previous version in some respects.

In the comments section this poster said:

"Thank you, so much, for your terrific work on these videos. I believe, in this one, you have hit on one of the main reasons Tesla FSD can never be the robotaxi Musk promised. Low glaring sun (and this wasn't even particularly low) will always cause Tesla FSD to fail because it has zero back-up sensor suites (Lidar; radar etc) like every other actual working and government-safety-approved self driving system like Mercedes and Waymo. Musk was warned about this issue by his own engineers, years ago, and it has never been solved because it can't be. Because of this, Tesla FSD can never have the reliability required to be government-safety-approved beyond anything but the current Level 2."

Is he right?

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Musk is unstable and petulant. However the premium share price is build on a foundation that this mercurial individual will be able to metaphorically turn sand into gold.

I am still waiting for full self drive and expect to continue waiting for many years to come and in beta it kills people. I find the cyber truck ridiculous, can't find any meaning full data on the Tesla semi and note the new roadster is still not in production. The hyper loop with even with my limited grasp of physics, looked stupid, I saw Elon on a video saying "It's not that hard..." I'm either smarter than him or he was lying, because it demonstrably is very hard. The boring company which was suppose to make tunnels faster than anyone else, doesn't. I could go on - he's a snake oil salesman.

I was interested in what Vanguard would do and reached the conclusion they would vote for the pay deal. The reason, the share price has a value more akin to a car company without the Musk premium and he was making it clear that no pay deal no Musk premium.

The next broken promise is going to be the robo-taxies and we only have to wait until August to find out what excuses will be trotted out to explain another missed delivery date.

But you forgot that the S,X, 3,Y, Semi and Cyber happened.

If you don't have any technical knowledge then these may look just like low margin cars, but they are far from the commodity products that GM, Ford, Toyota et al make.

FSD may not happen, but if the general case solution is created then it is worth serious money.

Optimus may not happen, but if it does it is worth more than any other invention ever.

Vanguard likely see their investment in Tesla as a call option that is backed up with existing revenue streams and if good things happen it makes them a lot of money. Tesla is now in the S&P anyhow and this forces many index linked funds to own Tesla equity.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

You are not understanding neural nets & how they are trained.

The neural net is trained on data from cars driving in a specific country creating a software/hardware combination that is specifically tailored to be a general solution in the country of training. Further down the line the neural nets will be trained for a general solution anywhere on the planet & then the moon as well.

Tesla have trained the 12.n’s for the US, not for anywhere else. The test cars going to China will be trained for Chinese road signs, conditions etc.

Once good operation is achieved in the trained for country, the neural net training will be expanded to create the general solution.

The process is identical to how humans drive. Some one who learned to drive in the US who wants to drive in the UK needs to learn UK signs, change of the side of the road to drive on, speed limits, etc etc & vice versa.

What would be useful is a direct comparison between the various brands both on the roads & on test tracks were dummy humans & objects can be risked as potential collision objects.

The prize from all of these tests is a transport system that is much safer than the one we now have.

Regards,

One doesn't need to understand neural networks to suggest that, if you are right, this could be a massive insurance liability!

V12 is now on cars in the UK and you are stating that it is not trained for UK roads. If it is a cause of an accident what is the defence?

As you will see from the video link below, it is by no means perfect on a UK road. Boats and vans look like American lorries the visual display is quite different from reality.

You can claim to understand neural networks but I don't think you are aware of the legal/insurance impact of your statement. This is a key issue for investors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlhtCAfnTiU

Even in the USA, V12.4.1 has many flaws. Just look at the video linked below.

If you were a cop following the Tesla, you would be forgiven for believing it was being driven under the influence. Weaving from lane to lane, freezing at a right turn and falsely indicating were just some of the problems. And this is filmed a few days ago on spacious roads in the USA. Just one example. But a serious investor should research a few more videos before commenting on the V12 capabilities.

Tesla FSD 12.4.1 is NOT what I expected…

Watch from the start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyOV_ECO-QE&t=9s

regards

Howard

This legal/insurance aspect is a red herring. FSD as currently sold is a supervised system. Hence the liability falls upon the driver unless he or she can show that the car would not let them take control there is no liability for Tesla. Several years ago Toyota was fined for making cars that the driver could not stop from accelerating, but otherwise there is no difference in liability for a FSD car than a non FSD car.

There are all manner of video that show Tesla doing bad things, but how many proven legal judgements go against Tesla? Far less than would be the case if all of these video were genuine.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyOV_ECO-QE&t=9s
Howard

An interesting comment under the video.... The software does not look at the road surface. It drives straight over potholes, raised manhole covers etc, which a human would sensibly drive around. I wonder what it does with speedbumps.
doolally

This is a work of fantasy. 12.4 and previous all can spot road irregularities including speed bumps.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting!

Tesla has the largest retail base of long term share holders of any stock as shown by the recent votes cast with large numbers of retail share holders on the previously agreed pay package being reinstated & the move to Texas from Delaware.

The statements made by Bradford DeLong are demonstrably false. Whether he is just ill informed or acting on behalf of someone else is unclear.

A CEO’s job is to make profits for shareholders & Tesla have demonstrated that by focusing on future technology which naysayers have said was impossible, huge profits have been made & shareholders have been well rewarded. The cost of the recent salary award to the CEO is carried on the books at a fully dillutive $2b, it is now over $50b due to the stock price rise & does not cost share holders any more & indeed share holders will get the exercise price if the CEO does get the share options & exercises.

The amount of misinformation about Tesla has reached yet higher levels as the naysayers put out relentless eye & ear candy to support their agendas.

Hubris, greed & stupidity are the foundational quantities that informed investors can use to make huge profits by buying into the extreme fear, uncertainty & doubt. However, most investors will not do the needed research & will instead rely on the candy put out by naysayers & miss out on huge profits.

Regards,

Ody,

Are you doing "the needed research" or just relying on candy?

Did you carefully select he video you showed of a V 12.4.1 test?

Investors need to decide if FSD is improving and the following suggests it still has a long way to go to be better than Level 2.

I’ve looked at three videos and they show some pretty serious flaws. Many other critical videos are available.

Following videos show V 12.4.1 driving mainly on wide roads with little traffic and well behaved pedestrians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpOjlm8PlDY

Driving in Chicago with V12.4.1

5 minutes: Wrong lane failure on a multi lane highway meant the driver had to grab the wheel. Luckily he appeared to anticipate that the software would fail at this moment.

6 minutes: Dangerous repeat of wrong lane failure. Last minute swerve by driver to save situation.

11 minutes: Wrong direction.

As the driver suggests at the end, despite the empty roads (very early morning) the car drove too slowly and often hesitated.

US cops would be justified in suspecting DUI!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OTOypREAEQ&t=1104s

5 minutes: Car hits the brakes - confused by yellow flashing light. Problem exceeding speed limits.

6.30 minutes Car goes too close to pedestrian.

7 minutes: Car hits pothole too fast.

10 minutes onwards: Car drives too slowly. At 13 minutes the car is painfully hesitant causing following car to undertake.

15 minutes: lane swerving

DUI candidate.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aL5VY2GaZDo

Early morning zero traffic very wide roads.

2 minutes: Winding road, driver has to catch yoke to stop car hitting nearside verge.

4 minutes: Confused by sunshine.

5 minutes: Lane weaving. Driver complains that the software is unpredictable.

10 minutes: Left turn painfully hesitant.

12 minutes: Confused by morning sunshine.

Driver says “not off to the great start we all expected”

24 minutes: Hilarious inability to park in a massive car park which is only about 5% filled. Driver expresses disappointment that latest software is not as good as previous version in some respects.

In the comments section this poster said:

"Thank you, so much, for your terrific work on these videos. I believe, in this one, you have hit on one of the main reasons Tesla FSD can never be the robotaxi Musk promised. Low glaring sun (and this wasn't even particularly low) will always cause Tesla FSD to fail because it has zero back-up sensor suites (Lidar; radar etc) like every other actual working and government-safety-approved self driving system like Mercedes and Waymo. Musk was warned about this issue by his own engineers, years ago, and it has never been solved because it can't be. Because of this, Tesla FSD can never have the reliability required to be government-safety-approved beyond anything but the current Level 2."

Is he right?

regards

Howard

There is an entire industry of folk who are intent on destroying Tesla. The examples that you cite are part of this well funded attempt to trash Tesla.

These kinds of arguments are easily shown to be ridiculous. For example the idea that a low sun will cause FSD to fail where as humans with just two eyes and no radar or lidar can cope.

Government regulators are well aware of the large death toll from human drivers and are set upon improving things by allowing various manufacturers to refine their versions of FSD on roads with the driver being responsible for what the car does. If the performance of FSD was as bad as is portrayed in the anti-Tesla video there would be a clamp down and restriction on FSD, but the regulators who have far more data than any of us continue to allow FSD to be trained on public roads. That should set many of these video and claims into context.

Regards,

[Howard]

Ody,

Are you doing "the needed research" or just relying on candy?

Did you carefully select he video you showed of a V 12.4.1 test?

Investors need to decide if FSD is improving and the following suggests it still has a long way to go to be better than Level 2.

I’ve looked at three videos and they show some pretty serious flaws. Many other critical videos are available.

Following videos show V 12.4.1 driving mainly on wide roads with little traffic and well behaved pedestrians.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpOjlm8PlDY

Driving in Chicago with V12.4.1

5 minutes: Wrong lane failure on a multi lane highway meant the driver had to grab the wheel. Luckily he appeared to anticipate that the software would fail at this moment.

6 minutes: Dangerous repeat of wrong lane failure. Last minute swerve by driver to save situation.

11 minutes: Wrong direction.

As the driver suggests at the end, despite the empty roads (very early morning) the car drove too slowly and often hesitated.

US cops would be justified in suspecting DUI!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OTOypREAEQ&t=1104s

5 minutes: Car hits the brakes - confused by yellow flashing light. Problem exceeding speed limits.

6.30 minutes Car goes too close to pedestrian.

7 minutes: Car hits pothole too fast.

10 minutes onwards: Car drives too slowly. At 13 minutes the car is painfully hesitant causing following car to undertake.

15 minutes: lane swerving

DUI candidate.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aL5VY2GaZDo

Early morning zero traffic very wide roads.

2 minutes: Winding road, driver has to catch yoke to stop car hitting nearside verge.

4 minutes: Confused by sunshine.

5 minutes: Lane weaving. Driver complains that the software is unpredictable.

10 minutes: Left turn painfully hesitant.

12 minutes: Confused by morning sunshine.

Driver says “not off to the great start we all expected”

24 minutes: Hilarious inability to park in a massive car park which is only about 5% filled. Driver expresses disappointment that latest software is not as good as previous version in some respects.

In the comments section this poster said:

"Thank you, so much, for your terrific work on these videos. I believe, in this one, you have hit on one of the main reasons Tesla FSD can never be the robotaxi Musk promised. Low glaring sun (and this wasn't even particularly low) will always cause Tesla FSD to fail because it has zero back-up sensor suites (Lidar; radar etc) like every other actual working and government-safety-approved self driving system like Mercedes and Waymo. Musk was warned about this issue by his own engineers, years ago, and it has never been solved because it can't be. Because of this, Tesla FSD can never have the reliability required to be government-safety-approved beyond anything but the current Level 2."

Is he right?

regards

Howard

There is an entire industry of folk who are intent on destroying Tesla. The examples that you cite are part of this well funded attempt to trash Tesla.

These kinds of arguments are easily shown to be ridiculous. For example the idea that a low sun will cause FSD to fail where as humans with just two eyes and no radar or lidar can cope.

Government regulators are well aware of the large death toll from human drivers and are set upon improving things by allowing various manufacturers to refine their versions of FSD on roads with the driver being responsible for what the car does. If the performance of FSD was as bad as is portrayed in the anti-Tesla video there would be a clamp down and restriction on FSD, but the regulators who have far more data than any of us continue to allow FSD to be trained on public roads. That should set many of these video and claims into context.

Regards,

You didn't look at the videos did you?

All filmed by Tesla enthusiasts.

As an investor, one has to face facts. One can't do the equivalent of covering one's eyes and ears.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

You didn't look at the videos did you?

All filmed by Tesla enthusiasts.

As an investor, one has to face facts. One can't do the equivalent of covering one's eyes and ears.

regards

Howard

I did watch all the videos & a lot more besides.

The best way to trash something is to say how much you live it & then add a but …

It is very easy to have confirmation bias confirmed by selecting a few supportive pieces of evidence & then believe that that they are the truth.

We have seen this happen relentlessly during the Tesla story, from the days when no one believed the model S would ever be built, then that Tesla would sell none & that legacy auto would destroy them. Ever one of those narratives was well supported by authoritative experts and data & all were false.

It is possible that things collapse at Tesla, that neither FSD nor Optimus become commercial products and that people stop buying Tesla cars. However, as of now Tesla cars are selling well, FSD continues to improve & Optimus is capable of simple tasks.

No one knows the future & to focus on a few videos by folk who clearly have an agenda against Tesla despite saying that they love the company is to get wrong roadbed in one’s ability to analyse the business & where it is going. With Tesla one is dealing with evolving technology being developed as part of a continuing commercial venture with many business being injured by the transition that Tesla has pioneered and with well funded agents of opposition plus a bunch of Luddites desperate to avoid change.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Car sales in May dominated by Chinese brands with legacy all down & Tesla doing well with Tesla year over year up 29.9%:

https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/12/chi ... -in-china/

VW down over 17%, Toyota down over 10%.

Regards,

[Howard]

Car sales in May dominated by Chinese brands with legacy all down & Tesla doing well with Tesla year over year up 29.9%:

https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/12/chi ... -in-china/

VW down over 17%, Toyota down over 10%.

Regards,

You picked the only favourable statistic from the article you linked to. Tesla beating its low ball month last year isn’t very positive.

As you surely know, Tesla’s ytd sales in China are slightly down on its 2023 performance. This is in a fast growing market , so, again as you must be aware, despite price cutting, its market share in China is slipping fast both in the EV sector and overall.

We will soon see the global half year figures. At the moment ytd Tesla volumes are lower in China and much lower in Europe with the US looking ok. But significant price cutting will mean lower turnover and reduced margins.

Given the trend this year a significant question is: will Tesla’s margins drop below BMW, Mercedes and Toyota? We won’t need a neural network to find the answer.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Car sales in May dominated by Chinese brands with legacy all down & Tesla doing well with Tesla year over year up 29.9%:

https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/12/chi ... -in-china/

VW down over 17%, Toyota down over 10%.

Regards,

You picked the only favourable statistic from the article you linked to. Tesla beating its low ball month last year isn’t very positive.

As you surely know, Tesla’s ytd sales in China are slightly down on its 2023 performance. This is in a fast growing market , so, again as you must be aware, despite price cutting, its market share in China is slipping fast both in the EV sector and overall.

We will soon see the global half year figures. At the moment ytd Tesla volumes are lower in China and much lower in Europe with the US looking ok. But significant price cutting will mean lower turnover and reduced margins.

Given the trend this year a significant question is: will Tesla’s margins drop below BMW, Mercedes and Toyota? We won’t need a neural network to find the answer.

regards

Howard

In a rapidly growing market why would anyone expect sales to grow. There is more choice & limits on production and Tesla do not have models for the whole market.

However, as it is Tesla are well up while VW & Toyota are well down on the time period covered. Given the choice I would much prefer Tesla to either of these.

We know that Tesla margins will soon begin to benefit from the staff let go & we also know battery prices are well down. So it will be interesting to see the coming year to date figures.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Tesla model Y again given number 1 spot for most American made vehicle in US:

https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1803 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

[ayshfm1]

The issue is the share price, in order to justify that price sales have to grow exponentially. They are not. Which simply means that sooner or later Tesla will get re-priced to reflect the non-exponential nature of it's sales.

When will this point come, is literally a billion dollar question.

If FSD is delivered and is actually FSD rather than assisted FSA then Tesla might justify it's valuation, robo-taxi's may also, but they are also dependent on FSA. FSA is make or break and I think Musk is running out of road as it were, it needs to be working properly really soon (in August).

I'm sceptical because I've been waiting years for these products and Musk spends a lot time over promising and under delivering, he reckoned we'd have cars driving themselves across America years ago and they still aren't. Tesla cars were going to be an appreciating asset, I'm not seeing any appreciating in the used prices. I have zero confidence August will bring forth a working FSD or a robotaxi the public can buy. Even if they are delivered it's by no means a given the necessary sales will follow.

In a nutshell sales need to be on a hyperbolic trajectory, a few more or less here or there in the context of the Tesla share price is noise.

[odysseus2000]

The issue is the share price, in order to justify that price sales have to grow exponentially. They are not. Which simply means that sooner or later Tesla will get re-priced to reflect the non-exponential nature of it's sales.

When will this point come, is literally a billion dollar question.

If FSD is delivered and is actually FSD rather than assisted FSA then Tesla might justify it's valuation, robo-taxi's may also, but they are also dependent on FSA. FSA is make or break and I think Musk is running out of road as it were, it needs to be working properly really soon (in August).

I'm sceptical because I've been waiting years for these products and Musk spends a lot time over promising and under delivering, he reckoned we'd have cars driving themselves across America years ago and they still aren't. Tesla cars were going to be an appreciating asset, I'm not seeing any appreciating in the used prices. I have zero confidence August will bring forth a working FSD or a robotaxi the public can buy. Even if they are delivered it's by no means a given the necessary sales will follow.

In a nutshell sales need to be on a hyperbolic trajectory, a few more or less here or there in the context of the Tesla share price is noise.

It is an interesting poker game. A huge pot in the middle of the table, almost within reach, but not quite & with time moving on there is the growing chorus of put up or shut up. It is strange how long FSD is taking. Each iteration promised to be good enough & yet each falling a little short, sometimes fixing issues, sometimes unfixing other issues. So many folk believe it will not happen, that the August unveil will still not be a self drive machine. If it is a fail will the share price collapse or will the show be good enough to extend folks patience? Meanwhile there is Optimus & its valuation to further complicate the process & yet more is whether even a failed FSD can be leveraged like Amazon web services into another profit centre.

From a basic physics perspective if neural nets work & there is plenty of evidence that they do & we already know that geofenced self drive systems are in daily operation, the Tesla FSD should also work. As I have noted many times before it will almost be more interesting if FSD can’t be made to work as that would show some limits to what a multi camera AI system can do compared to a human.

As is it looks to be an asymmetric bet. If FSD doesn’t work in August, there is enough other stuff to likely stop the share price collapsing. If it does work there is enough negativity that will have to unwind that a large share price run will likely start.

Regards,

[Howard]

Elon Musk has just reported on X "Working on the Tesla Master Plan 4, It will be epic."

There is speculation that it will include forecasts of successes in AI, Robotics and advanced computing as well as robotaxis and FSD.

Master Plan 2 released in 2016 called for: (1) integrating energy generation and storage from SolarCity into Tesla, (2) expand to cover the major forms of terrestrial transport (cars, trucks, buses), (3) develop self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual driving, and (4) enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it (Tesla Network). The plan was said to be aimed to create a single company that integrates sustainable energy generation, storage, and transportation.

Master Plan 3 disclosed in 2023 included: (1) scale Tesla to "extreme size" to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, (2) develop advanced AI capabilities for full self-driving and other applications, and (3) expand into new markets like heating, industrial processes, and long-haul heavy transport.

Enthusiastic analysts are predicting that Tesla will soon be worth trillions.

Meanwhile, Tesla is expected to report second-quarter deliveries soon.

On Friday, Barclays analysts said that they expect Tesla to deliver 415,000 units, down 11% year-over-year and below the consensus estimate of 444,000.

Analysts attributed the estimate to weak sales in Europe and modest production increases in China.

Regards

Howard

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sto ... -robotaxis

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