GDP up in November

[Adamski]

The UK economy unexpectedly grew 0.1% in November, helped by a boost from the football World Cup - BBC headline

I said here few days ago, the doom and gloom overdone. Shops busy, people buying stuff.

As I understand it this is real gdp adjusted for inflation. Cpi was 10.7% down from 11.1% month before.

Which means growth holding up and inflation may have peaked. A recession is likely but it may be shallow and inflation is certainly going to fall - oil and gas prices down.

The interpretation on the bbc commentary was largely negative
I wish our national broadcaster was more balanced. This is some good news for a change.

[Dod101]

The UK economy unexpectedly grew 0.1% in November, helped by a boost from the football World Cup - BBC headline

I said here few days ago, the doom and gloom overdone. Shops busy, people buying stuff.

As I understand it this is real gdp adjusted for inflation. Cpi was 10.7% down from 11.1% month before.

Which means growth holding up and inflation may have peaked. A recession is likely but it may be shallow and inflation is certainly going to fall - oil and gas prices down.

The interpretation on the bbc commentary was largely negative
I wish our national broadcaster was more balanced. This is some good news for a change.

I agree. Not just the BBC but most commentators. I think the doom and gloom is overdone. There are lots of signs that things may well be better this year.

Dod

[vand]

The UK economy unexpectedly grew 0.1% in November, helped by a boost from the football World Cup - BBC headline

I said here few days ago, the doom and gloom overdone. Shops busy, people buying stuff.

As I understand it this is real gdp adjusted for inflation. Cpi was 10.7% down from 11.1% month before.

Which means growth holding up and inflation may have peaked. A recession is likely but it may be shallow and inflation is certainly going to fall - oil and gas prices down.

The interpretation on the bbc commentary was largely negative
I wish our national broadcaster was more balanced. This is some good news for a change.

I agree. Not just the BBC but most commentators. I think the doom and gloom is overdone. There are lots of signs that things may well be better this year.

Dod

Yes - real wages may only fall 3% instead of %5 that we've quickly become accustomed to.

[anon155742]

Per capita its likely still a fall

[Adamski]

'After the Brexit vote, UK stocks were off the menu for many international investors and valuations plummeted. This remained the case for some time until some canny players realised the opportunities to be had, leading to a wave of takeovers – decent businesses picked up on the cheap. Last year was a big turning point, whereby the UK was one of the few major markets around the world not to see a big slump. Now if the FTSE 100 breaks a new record, it’s another trophy in the cabinet for the UK and a reason to shout from the hilltops that the market is not as dull as people think,’ AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould commented.

Ftse 100 up 0 4% this morning on back of positive news.

[BullDog]

'After the Brexit vote, UK stocks were off the menu for many international investors and valuations plummeted. This remained the case for some time until some canny players realised the opportunities to be had, leading to a wave of takeovers – decent businesses picked up on the cheap. Last year was a big turning point, whereby the UK was one of the few major markets around the world not to see a big slump. Now if the FTSE 100 breaks a new record, it’s another trophy in the cabinet for the UK and a reason to shout from the hilltops that the market is not as dull as people think,’ AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould commented.

Ftse 100 up 0 4% this morning on back of positive news.

Unless I'm mistaken, FTSE100 touched an all time high earlier at 7840.

[Itsallaguess]

Ftse 100 up 0 4% this morning on back of positive news.

Unless I'm mistaken, FTSE100 touched an all time high earlier at 7840.

An all time high of 7847.02 was seen earlier today -



Source - https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE?window=MAX

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[BullDog]

Ftse 100 up 0 4% this morning on back of positive news.

Unless I'm mistaken, FTSE100 touched an all time high earlier at 7840.

An all time high of 7847.02 was seen earlier today -



Source - https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE?window=MAX

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Thanks. It's been a long time coming and from 1999 it looks pretty sad really. I hope that's going to change over the next few years. But I'm not holding my breath.

[SebsCat]

An all time high of 7847.02 was seen earlier today

The FTSE 100 closing high is 7877.45 set on 22/05/2018. It reached 7903.50 during that day.

[Itsallaguess]

An all time high of 7847.02 was seen earlier today

The FTSE 100 closing high is 7877.45 set on 22/05/2018. It reached 7903.50 during that day.

Thanks - I was going off the figures on the Google Finance charts, but on further investigation your figures are more accurate -

The FTSE 100 fell short of hitting some all-time highs on Friday after a strong start to the year.

Pushing up to fresh five-year highs, the FTSE hit its highest score since the record points it had tallied in May 2018.

It closed at 7,844.07 on Friday after briefly peaking at 7,864.95 a little earlier in the day. It was a rise of 50.03 points, or 0.6%.

Both measures came within just a few dozen points of the records in both categories. The FTSE’s highest close was 7877.45 back in 2018 and in intra-day trading it reached around 7,903.

“The FTSE 100 is closing in on record highs as the UK’s unexpected GDP growth caused a welcome swell for the market,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Investors are also eyeing the fact that US inflation has continued to weaken, which has added to hopes that the Federal Reserve could be convinced to maintain, if not downgrade, the current interest rate hiking cycle, which has sent positive ripples across the wider eurozone.

“The UK market has also been buoyed by a spate of positive results this week from consumer-facing retail names. Ultimately, it seems that economic activity and discretionary spending is holding up far better than expected.

https://tinyurl.com/2lclf2lq

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[vand]

I don't even know why anyone is interested in "GDP growth" if it ceases to act as a barometer for real wealth increase. As most people have lost purchasing power in the last 18 months even as GDP has continued to creep up then they are justified to ask - what is the relevance of GDP numbers that says our output is increasing but we are all getting poorer? Absolutely none.

[Itsallaguess]

I don't even know why anyone is interested in "GDP growth" if it ceases to act as a barometer for real wealth increase.

As most people have lost purchasing power in the last 18 months even as GDP has continued to creep up then they are justified to ask - what is the relevance of GDP numbers that says our output is increasing but we are all getting poorer?

Absolutely none.

I totally agree.

To an individual, the much more relevant metric would be GDP per capita, and the fact that for the UK, that particular metric has never again reached the level it was all the way back in 2007 might shine a light on why it's rarely seen mentioned in the mainstream media...

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Arborbridge]

I don't even know why anyone is interested in "GDP growth" if it ceases to act as a barometer for real wealth increase.

As most people have lost purchasing power in the last 18 months even as GDP has continued to creep up then they are justified to ask - what is the relevance of GDP numbers that says our output is increasing but we are all getting poorer?

Absolutely none.

I totally agree.

To an individual, the much more relevant metric would be GDP per capita, and the fact that for the UK, that particular metric has never again reached the level it was all the way back in 2007 might shine a light on why it's rarely seen mentioned in the mainstream media...

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Doesn't GDP also include activities such as undertakers and other "non-productive" activities? And presumably energy costs too are somewhere in the mix. Hard prodcutive in the normal sense.

Arb.

[vand]

I don't even know why anyone is interested in "GDP growth" if it ceases to act as a barometer for real wealth increase.

As most people have lost purchasing power in the last 18 months even as GDP has continued to creep up then they are justified to ask - what is the relevance of GDP numbers that says our output is increasing but we are all getting poorer?

Absolutely none.

I totally agree.

To an individual, the much more relevant metric would be GDP per capita, and the fact that for the UK, that particular metric has never again reached the level it was all the way back in 2007 might shine a light on why it's rarely seen mentioned in the mainstream media...

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Doesn't GDP also include activities such as undertakers and other "non-productive" activities? And presumably energy costs too are somewhere in the mix. Hard prodcutive in the normal sense.

Arb.

Yes, it measures the total market price of work done, not the value of the output.

The classic example being you can employ a load of people to dig holes in the ground and then fill them back up - nothing actually produced at the end of the day, but their work and wages - all paid through taxation - will contribute to GDP.

I mean, I am being slightly facetious and I suppose GDP is important for things like what rates people will lend you money at, how much tax receipts we can expect for public services (weather you are ideologically for or against redistribution), and for general business conditions, but from a household point of view it doesn't tell you very much at all, and doesn't necessarily reflect changes in prosperity.

[NotSure]

'After the Brexit vote, UK stocks were off the menu for many international investors and valuations plummeted. This remained the case for some time until some canny players realised the opportunities to be had, leading to a wave of takeovers – decent businesses picked up on the cheap. Last year was a big turning point, whereby the UK was one of the few major markets around the world not to see a big slump. Now if the FTSE 100 breaks a new record, it’s another trophy in the cabinet for the UK and a reason to shout from the hilltops that the market is not as dull as people think,’ AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould commented.

Ftse 100 up 0 4% this morning on back of positive news.

What does last years FTSE performance look like in dollars?

I would agree that the doom and gloom seems overdone, but pound weakness last year really helped out my (global and UK) portfolio, if measured in pounds (which is most appropriate to me)

[Adamski]

..what is the relevance of GDP numbers that says our output is increasing but we are all getting poorer? Absolutely none.

The gdp figures are adjusted for inflation. So if gdp goes up means as a country collective getting wealthier.

Gdp per capita probably a better measure.

However I'm guessing personally more relevant number will be net wealth adjusted for personal inflation. This current inflation is destroying savings, and is eroding wealth.

The BoE is expecting it to fall in middle of 2023 and be back to 2% target in 2 years time, but that's a lot of wealth erosion in 2022, 23 and 24.

[Arborbridge]

..what is the relevance of GDP numbers that says our output is increasing but we are all getting poorer? Absolutely none.

The gdp figures are adjusted for inflation. So if gdp goes up means as a country collective getting wealthier.

Gdp per capita probably a better measure.

However I'm guessing personally more relevant number will be net wealth adjusted for personal inflation. This current inflation is destroying savings, and is eroding wealth.

The BoE is expecting it to fall in middle of 2023 and be back to 2% target in 2 years time, but that's a lot of wealth erosion in 2022, 23 and 24.

In general, one hopes a country would be getting wealthier - but only if the effort produces something useful.
If we spend most of that increasing wealth in digging holes, burying people or re-arranging deck chairs, then greater GDP just creates an illusion of wealth.

Digging holes is quite relevant to me. We have a problem in that nature keeps digging holes in the roads around here, and the authorities are continuously mending them. It's the massive rains we've been having, I assume, but it may be an example of a GDP increase which is not achieving much - it doesn't even stop people moaning because the council cannot mend them fast enough.

Arb.

[anon155742]

In general, one hopes a country would be getting wealthier - but only if the effort produces something useful.
If we spend most of that increasing wealth in digging holes, burying people or re-arranging deck chairs, then greater GDP just creates an illusion of wealth.

Digging holes is quite relevant to me. We have a problem in that nature keeps digging holes in the roads around here, and the authorities are continuously mending them. It's the massive rains we've been having, I assume, but it may be an example of a GDP increase which is not achieving much - it doesn't even stop people moaning because the council cannot mend them fast enough.

Arb.

What about building houses then filling them with people that wont produce?

[Arborbridge]

In general, one hopes a country would be getting wealthier - but only if the effort produces something useful.
If we spend most of that increasing wealth in digging holes, burying people or re-arranging deck chairs, then greater GDP just creates an illusion of wealth.

Digging holes is quite relevant to me. We have a problem in that nature keeps digging holes in the roads around here, and the authorities are continuously mending them. It's the massive rains we've been having, I assume, but it may be an example of a GDP increase which is not achieving much - it doesn't even stop people moaning because the council cannot mend them fast enough.

Arb.

What about building houses then filling them with people that wont produce?

Everyone is productive in some way - even if it is only to aid the circulation of money! Pensioners who don't work or get free bus travel are economoically active, giving others employment and adding to the multiplier effect. Even an old time tramp does that.
I'm not rising to your usual one-stringed fiddle argument at this late hour.

Arb.

[Nimrod103]

In general, one hopes a country would be getting wealthier - but only if the effort produces something useful.
If we spend most of that increasing wealth in digging holes, burying people or re-arranging deck chairs, then greater GDP just creates an illusion of wealth.

Digging holes is quite relevant to me. We have a problem in that nature keeps digging holes in the roads around here, and the authorities are continuously mending them. It's the massive rains we've been having, I assume, but it may be an example of a GDP increase which is not achieving much - it doesn't even stop people moaning because the council cannot mend them fast enough.

Arb.

What about building houses then filling them with people that wont produce?

Everyone is productive in some way - even if it is only to aid the circulation of money! Pensioners who don't work or get free bus travel are economoically active, giving others employment and adding to the multiplier effect. Even an old time tramp does that.
I'm not rising to your usual one-stringed fiddle argument at this late hour.

Arb.

The point about GDP and filling potholes is that the resources used are withdrawn from some other activity elsewhere, so in general the net effect on GDP is zero. But overall in November there was a very small increase in economic activity, so GDP went up by 0.1%.
The issue with building houses for the unproductive, is that it is the explanation why we don’t feel richer, despite almost continuous rises in GDP for years. As Jeremy Warner in today’s Telegraph says, we are a lot poorer than we thought we were, and the reason is inflation. Inflation is caused by too much demand and too little productivity. We assign too much reward to the unproductive, and unless the UK changes its ways we are all doomed to a poorer future.