The Lemon Fool

I'm seeing a lot of adverts for investment brokers of late.
Vanguard has just been on, I saw AJ Bell yesterday and Hargreaves Lansdown is on regularly.

When the masses start to get interested in something that's usually the time to get out.
Are we, therefore, at the peak of the market?

End of the tax year?

doolally wrote:End of the tax year?

Occam's Razor strikes again.
Does seem a likely explanation.
Be interesting to see if the adverts continue into late April.

Though the "Abrdn" advert that was just on did mention the words 'savings' and 'inflation'.
Maybe wipeout of cash in the bank is the reason for the preponderance of adverts.

absolutezero wrote:I'm seeing a lot of adverts for investment brokers of late.
Vanguard has just been on, I saw AJ Bell yesterday and Hargreaves Lansdown is on regularly.

Are they promoting name awareness perhaps? I could imagine none of those three are particularly household names outside those with an interest in investment.

Alaric wrote:

absolutezero wrote:I'm seeing a lot of adverts for investment brokers of late.
Vanguard has just been on, I saw AJ Bell yesterday and Hargreaves Lansdown is on regularly.

Are they promoting name awareness perhaps? I could imagine none of those three are particularly household names outside those with an interest in investment.

Vanguard have been advertising on telly for quite a while, they had one last year in March (I noticed it as it was tax year end) and I'm pretty sure they have been running the new one since Xmas.

Not seen any for HL or AJB though.

doolally wrote:End of the tax year?

Yep
aimed at those who can't plan ahead and leave it till the last minute
so probably more likely to pay higher fees

absolutezero wrote:I'm seeing a lot of adverts for investment brokers of late.
Vanguard has just been on, I saw AJ Bell yesterday and Hargreaves Lansdown is on regularly.

When the masses start to get interested in something that's usually the time to get out.
Are we, therefore, at the peak of the market?

Even if it were not ISA related it's a sign that the market is just getting going, not that it is peaking. The top will come a bit later.

GS

Perhaps a sign that HL and AJ Bell now have capacity to deal with new business?

But yes, I'd say we are reaching peak interest. Lower disposable income is going to impact on these brokers AUM

It's inherently impossible to predict whether stocks go up or down, as even the fund managers and experts get it wrong. Experts said before the 10 year bull run that markets were overpriced then went on a record bull run. Experts also get it wrong before a crash. Like to look back at recommendations for top buys at the start if the year versus now. All we can do as retail investors is stay diversified and expect today's price plus inflation and a bit more over the long term. Assuming world's top companies will continue to innovate and grow revenue and profits.

Adamski wrote:It's inherently impossible to predict whether stocks go up or down, as even the fund managers and experts get it wrong.

Totally agreed, anyone who tells you otherwise is a fool
If anyone did tknow they wouldn't have to work and could make enough in a few days to live on for life

IMHO it depends on the programmes where the adverts are placed.

Adverts during business and finance programming isn't a problem, as these programmes are predominately watched by the target audience. It's like advertising golf equipment, golf club memberships and golfing holidays during Sky Sports golf coverage. TD Direct sponsored Sky News' mid-morning business slot for some time. Pretty accurate placement I'd say.

Brokers advertising during ITV's Breakfast programming and soap operas is a huge warning sign. As is daytime TV presenters talking about stagging share offers (seen during the dotcom boom).

Anyone remember "The Royal Event" in September 1987? Royal Life mass marketing the launch of three unit trusts, in the style of a privatisation offer, targeting people who had never invested (I believe there were adverts during Coronation Street). 19 days after the launch the stockmarket crashed.

SalvorHardin wrote:IMHO it depends on the programmes where the adverts are placed.

Adverts during business and finance programming isn't a problem, as these programmes are predominately watched by the target audience. It's like advertising golf equipment, golf club memberships and golfing holidays during Sky Sports golf coverage. TD Direct sponsored Sky News' mid-morning business slot for some time. Pretty accurate placement I'd say.

Brokers advertising during ITV's Breakfast programming and soap operas is a huge warning sign. As is daytime TV presenters talking about stagging share offers (seen during the dotcom boom).

Anyone remember "The Royal Event" in September 1987? Royal Life mass marketing the launch of three unit trusts, in the style of a privatisation offer, targeting people who had never invested (I believe there were adverts during Coronation Street). 19 days after the launch the stockmarket crashed.

The ones the other night were on on Channel 4.
He was watching a Falklands War documentary about 9pm or so. (I watch very little television.)
Also think I've seen them on the ITV3/ITV4 repeat channels in the evenings.

absolutezero wrote:Also think I've seen them on the ITV3/ITV4 repeat channels in the evenings.

I've been working my way through on demand reruns of "The Bill" on UKTV Play. The Vanguard, AJ Bell and Hargreaves ads are a regular sighting.

Alaric wrote:

absolutezero wrote:Also think I've seen them on the ITV3/ITV4 repeat channels in the evenings.

I've been working my way through on demand reruns of "The Bill" on UKTV Play. The Vanguard, AJ Bell and Hargreaves ads are a regular sighting.

Obviously after those with disposable income.
No point sticking them on the yoof channels!