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Collapse of the UK housing market

including Budgets
dealtn
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599100

Postby dealtn » June 30th, 2023, 6:28 pm

Mike4 wrote:So who determines what measure of inflation the MPC uses as its target? I think it is the Chancellor.

And why don't they use or switch to CPIH?


Assuming that's a genuine question let me try and give a very simple answer.

I was part of 2 consultation processes instigated by the government into what the "appropriate" measure(s) for inflation should be. Specifically I was involved in the potential switch away from using RPI as the index for inflation linked bonds, and the wider extension into what index was appropriate for linking to expenditure such as benefit payments.

Already this is getting complicated, and that in essence is the answer. Whilst, as the joke goes, "you wouldn't start from here" that is the summary of the problem. Changing to something different, for arguably little gain, creates a lot of problems.

I would argue (and did) the least difficult part is moving to CPIH as the MPC's target. It does however create the immediate disadvantage in that the government yield curve, and that used for multiple millions of contracts isn't based on CPIH. The counter is that many millions now are based on RPI and yet CPI is the now the accepted target, and the problems of that disconnect are manageable, so changing further to CPIH wouldn't add meaningful additional complexity.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599107

Postby leedm » June 30th, 2023, 7:02 pm

Interesting debate. Having read through it, I’m still struggling to hear a legitimate argument as to why house prices should not be included in the CPI.

If it was the case that we don’t already have a way of measuring average house price increases/decreases on a monthly basis there might be an argument to not include them, but we are able to measure this.

Secondly, houses aren’t (just) an investment. If they were then we’d have to pay CGT on our primary residence, but we don’t.

They are not the only thing we buy that we pay for via finance. Cars are another and they are included in CPI.

Lastly, if, as we are told, one of the goals of The Fed or MPC is to maintain price stability, the house price bubble that has occurred in on the last 10-15 years can hardly be described as price stability when the multiple of average earnings required to purchase a house has increased as much as it has. Furthermore, it is obvious that had average house prices been included in CPI then its highly likely that BOE interest rates would have started to increase earlier and as we are seeing now, quelled the rate of increase of house prices.

I’m sure there is a valid mathematical or statistical reason for not including them, but I’ve yet to see a convincing demonstration of what that is.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599111

Postby Lootman » June 30th, 2023, 7:10 pm

leedm wrote:Secondly, houses aren’t (just) an investment. If they were then we’d have to pay CGT on our primary residence, but we don’t.

Primary homes are CGT-free because governments want to encourage home ownership. For much the same reason we used to get tax relief on mortgage interest. But that was done away with to try and cool the property market and CGT relief could go the same way. After all, not all other nations give that relief.

And the government takes with the other hand with SDLT rates of up to 17%. And council tax of course.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599113

Postby leedm » June 30th, 2023, 7:18 pm

Lootman wrote:
leedm wrote:Secondly, houses aren’t (just) an investment. If they were then we’d have to pay CGT on our primary residence, but we don’t.

Primary homes are CGT-free because governments want to encourage home ownership. For much the same reason we used to get tax relief on mortgage interest. But that was done away with to try and cool the property market and CGT relief could go the same way. After all, not all other nations give that relief.

And the government takes with the other hand with SDLT rates of up to 17%. And council tax of course.


True but that doesn’t mean they should solely be seen as just an investment. most people buy a house because they need somewhere to live and over the long run it’s cheaper than renting. They also want something that is their own and can decorate it as they wish plus many other reasons. The fact it’s likely to increase in value is a bonus but not the primary reason many people buy a house. Regardless of all that, fundamentally it’s something many people buy, it goes up and down in value and it’s rate of increase/decrease can be measured, so why shouldn’t it be included in CPI.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599122

Postby Tara » June 30th, 2023, 8:00 pm

Lootman wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote: an internet discussion forum which encourages brief responses does tend to polarise views and obscure nuances.

Added to which my career was in an industry which was focused on results.

That is why I like the markets. No endless debates about who is right or wrong. If your portfolio goes up then you were right. If it goes down, you were wrong. Instant feedback; easily measured.

And on that basis, so far it is the housing bulls who are right, and our resident housing perma-bear who is wrong.


The topic under discussion here only began in February 2023 and so hardly a “housing perma-bear” if you are referring to the OP.

And most people would agree that house prices were overvalued then and now, and so not wrong about anything. Quite the opposite in fact.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599135

Postby dealtn » June 30th, 2023, 9:11 pm

leedm wrote:Interesting debate. Having read through it, I’m still struggling to hear a legitimate argument as to why house prices should not be included in the CPI.



Other than that they are an asset and "consumed" over multiple years rather than in just a single period.

Other than they don't represent the majority way a consumer pays for housing.

Other than they are equally as much a product that is sold by a consumer as much as bought by one.

What would convince you they shouldn't be in CPI (or CPIH)? Or are you simply making the different, but legitimate, alternative argument that monetary policy makers shouldn't ignore wealth effects, and in particular housing wealth (in this case), when setting interest rates?

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599141

Postby leedm » June 30th, 2023, 10:02 pm

Your first and third paragraphs could equally apply to cars, yet cars are included in CPI.

I assume your 2nd paragraph is implying that more people rent than buy, which may be true, doesn’t change anything, the cost of rental increase can also been measured and should be included as well.

As I said, I’m happy to be convinced otherwise, and I’m sure there is a perfectly legitimate mathematical reason why including house prices in CPI is a problem, but I don’t agree it’s because some perceive them to be an investment or an “asset”,

Ultimately, it seems to me that not including it has resulted in the inflation figure for the last 15 years being lower than it otherwise would’ve been and that’s directly influenced the BOE base rate which has resulted in mortgage rates being lower which is a significant factor in why we have seen such rapid house price growth.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599144

Postby ursaminortaur » June 30th, 2023, 10:21 pm

dealtn wrote:
Mike4 wrote:So who determines what measure of inflation the MPC uses as its target? I think it is the Chancellor.

And why don't they use or switch to CPIH?


Assuming that's a genuine question let me try and give a very simple answer.

I was part of 2 consultation processes instigated by the government into what the "appropriate" measure(s) for inflation should be. Specifically I was involved in the potential switch away from using RPI as the index for inflation linked bonds, and the wider extension into what index was appropriate for linking to expenditure such as benefit payments.

Already this is getting complicated, and that in essence is the answer. Whilst, as the joke goes, "you wouldn't start from here" that is the summary of the problem. Changing to something different, for arguably little gain, creates a lot of problems.

I would argue (and did) the least difficult part is moving to CPIH as the MPC's target. It does however create the immediate disadvantage in that the government yield curve, and that used for multiple millions of contracts isn't based on CPIH. The counter is that many millions now are based on RPI and yet CPI is the now the accepted target, and the problems of that disconnect are manageable, so changing further to CPIH wouldn't add meaningful additional complexity.



RPI is being aligned with CPIH from 2030.

https://www.lcp.uk.com/our-viewpoint/2020/11/rpi-will-be-aligned-to-cpih-from-2030-with-no-compensation-for-holders-of-index-linked-gilts/

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599145

Postby CliffEdge » June 30th, 2023, 10:34 pm

Surely most houses exist forever?

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599147

Postby Lootman » June 30th, 2023, 10:39 pm

CliffEdge wrote:Surely most houses exist forever?

In the UK, mostly yes, albeit at great maintenance costs.

Many other nations tear down houses every 50 years or so, and rebuild,

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599149

Postby Mike4 » June 30th, 2023, 10:59 pm

leedm wrote:
Secondly, houses aren’t (just) an investment.


Of course they are. I'd say 95% of my personal wealth has come from investing in property. QED.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599150

Postby CliffEdge » June 30th, 2023, 11:00 pm

Mike4 wrote:
leedm wrote:
Secondly, houses aren’t (just) an investment.


Of course they are. I'd say 95% of my personal wealth has come from investing in property. QED.

So do you think individuals should only be allowed to own one house?

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599156

Postby Mike4 » June 30th, 2023, 11:16 pm

CliffEdge wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Of course they are. I'd say 95% of my personal wealth has come from investing in property. QED.

So do you think individuals should only be allowed to own one house?


Have a guess.

You'll probably be right!

:lol:

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599159

Postby CliffEdge » July 1st, 2023, 12:39 am

Mike4 wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:So do you think individuals should only be allowed to own one house?


Have a guess.

You'll probably be right!

:lol:

I wouldn't want to put thoughts in your head, however necessary.
8-)

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599161

Postby dealtn » July 1st, 2023, 6:52 am

leedm wrote:Your first and third paragraphs could equally apply to cars, yet cars are included in CPI.

I assume your 2nd paragraph is implying that more people rent than buy, which may be true, doesn’t change anything, the cost of rental increase can also been measured and should be included as well.

As I said, I’m happy to be convinced otherwise, and I’m sure there is a perfectly legitimate mathematical reason why including house prices in CPI is a problem, but I don’t agree it’s because some perceive them to be an investment or an “asset”,

Ultimately, it seems to me that not including it has resulted in the inflation figure for the last 15 years being lower than it otherwise would’ve been and that’s directly influenced the BOE base rate which has resulted in mortgage rates being lower which is a significant factor in why we have seen such rapid house price growth.


Para 1) Applies to cars, but over a shorter timeframe, and I have previously explained why including cars in the current form is also wrong (but could be justified if the methodology is adjusted through partial inclusion in a basket)

Para 2) Not just the fact that people rent, most buyers "pay" via a monthly financing arrangement such as a mortgage, and it is the variability of the monthly payment that should be captured as the consumption cost, and the change in the cost of living within an inflation figure. Over much of the last 20 years house prices have risen but mortgage payments have fallen. What is right about including the rising house prices when consumer inflation for housing consumption has been lower monthly/annual prices?

Para 3) Cars don't typically get sold consumer to consumer, the majority of cars are sold from manufacturers or dealerships with relatively few sold even second hand between consumers

Your final paragraph has a lot of merit. Which again leads me to conclude your actual belief is the MPC is using either the wrong tool, or combination of tools, and should be addressing additional factors when considering monetary policy. Nothing I haven't said already but crucially this isn't the issue with CPI (or inflation generally) but something else. Any reason you care not to express that itself rather than make claims that CPI's non inclusion of assets is a problem?

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599177

Postby Alaric » July 1st, 2023, 9:11 am

leedm wrote:Ultimately, it seems to me that not including it has resulted in the inflation figure for the last 15 years being lower than it otherwise would’ve been and that’s directly influenced the BOE base rate which has resulted in mortgage rates being lower which is a significant factor in why we have seen such rapid house price growth.


Perhaps the BofE should have been given an explicit target for increases in house prices as well as CPI or RPI. If this conflicted with the remit to force average price rises elsewhere of 2% then so be it. The price of housing is gong to be influenced by building costs and land prices, but also availability and cost of credit, The latter are in theory within the Bank's control or at least inflence.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599178

Postby leedm » July 1st, 2023, 9:22 am

Para 1) Applies to cars, but over a shorter timeframe, and I have previously explained why including cars in the current form is also wrong (but could be justified if the methodology is adjusted through partial inclusion in a basket)


Why should the timeframe frequency of purchase for the individual matter. I would say what matters is that you can measure the price of houses (which is already done) and if the price of those houses is is increasing/decreasing as people buy them. Why does it matter that the person buying the house today is not the same person who is buying a house tomorrow?

Furthermore, there are many things in the CPI basket that very few people buy, electric bikes are in there for example.



Para 2) Not just the fact that people rent, most buyers "pay" via a monthly financing arrangement such as a mortgage, and it is the variability of the monthly payment that should be captured as the consumption cost, and the change in the cost of living within an inflation figure. Over much of the last 20 years house prices have risen but mortgage payments have fallen. What is right about including the rising house prices when consumer inflation for housing consumption has been lower monthly/annual prices?


So, many people buy cars and other things on finance and yet cars (and others) are in CPI as said before.

What you appear to be arguing for here is that because the cost of credit has reduced and thereby the monthly cost of servicing that debt has reduced for the consumer, we should ignore the initial price of the item that the credit has been obtained for.

The problem with this is that you seem to be forgetting that most mortgages require a deposit, the size of this deposit is often directly Impacted by the price of the house and thereby this also impacts how much money the buyer needs to save to be able to raise it, this has a direct impact on the buyers cost of living and even their ability to purchase the house entirely.

For this reason alone I can’t see how it can be argued to include the cost of credit and exclude the price of the house.

But more importantly, (and this is the reason where I would’ve thought the BOE would really want to include house prices at is directly impacts their price stability mandate ), by not including house prices in a cheap credit environment, a bubble has been allowed to develop which now, when credit is less cheap, is going to result in a far
More challenging economic and political environment for the BOE/government to manage than it otherwise would’ve done had house prices been included.

Your final paragraph has a lot of merit. Which again leads me to conclude your actual belief is the MPC is using either the wrong tool, or combination of tools, and should be addressing additional factors when considering monetary policy. Nothing I haven't said already but crucially this isn't the issue with CPI (or inflation generally) but something else. Any reason you care not to express that itself rather than make claims that CPI's non inclusion of assets is a problem?


That’s a fair question and I guess that my argument is that house prices (not just the cost of finance or the cost of running a house) should be one of the things that’s included by the MPC when they are measuring inflation and thereby making their decisions on what to set the base rate to. It doesn’t necessarily have to be CPI if another approach achieves this goal

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599189

Postby vand » July 1st, 2023, 10:42 am

Before you ladies go any further down the rabbit hole, please -- step back.

It's obvious to anyone with a brain that it should be the cost of providing shelter is included in general CPI figures - if you regard CPI as a measure for the cost of living. That methodology then needs to reflect the economics of our housing market - including rents, owner-occupied, as well as public sector housing in representative measures.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599192

Postby Mike4 » July 1st, 2023, 10:56 am

vand wrote:Before you ladies go any further down the rabbit hole, please -- step back.

It's obvious to anyone with a brain that it should be the cost of providing shelter is included in general CPI figures - if you regard CPI as a measure for the cost of living. That methodology then needs to reflect the economics of our housing market - including rents, owner-occupied, as well as public sector housing in representative measures.


Well yes, cost of shelter used be included in the BoE deliberations about BRs but this was where the politics came in and polluted matters.

It used to be RPI (which includes a housing element) used for setting BRs, but it was replaced with CPI specifically because getting rid of the rising cost of shelter was a way of frigging the inflation figures. Or so opponents of the change claimed at the time IIRC, and I think they were right.

This was done make it look as though team guvvermint/BoE was doing a better job at controlling inflation than it actually was.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#599194

Postby NotSure » July 1st, 2023, 11:04 am

vand wrote:Before you ladies go any further down the rabbit hole, please -- step back.

It's obvious to anyone with a brain ......


Uncalled for for in my very humble opinion (and I'm a very tolerant person :)). This is a fascinating thread (IMVHO).


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