The Lemon Fool

I found this write up on Vanguard'd economic and market outlook:

https://www.vanguard.co.uk/content/dam/ ... k-2022.pdf

I have not ploughed through the details, but the portfolios at the end are of interest. Firstly note that their models are recommending a big UK bias. Also note that the models recommend holding commodities. Vanguard does not have a fund for that, in the UK at least. When they were interviewed, a couple of the chief UK van guards did not sound positive about the idea of introducing one.

Interesting article, Vanguard Life Strategy Portfolios have a chunky UK bias, I imagine that colours their portfolio choices.

On page 39 they discuss the error in their previous 10 years predictions for the US market, the predicted outcome was for $100 to grow to $213 but the outcome was $474…. Be interesting to see how their present predictions turn out.

Hariseldon58 wrote:Interesting article, Vanguard Life Strategy Portfolios have a chunky UK bias, I imagine that colours their portfolio choices.

An interview with two of the UK chief van guards suggested the 25% UK allocation was for marketing reasons. The portfolios at the end of the paper have a bigger UK bias.

GeoffF100 wrote:

Hariseldon58 wrote:Interesting article, Vanguard Life Strategy Portfolios have a chunky UK bias, I imagine that colours their portfolio choices.

An interview with two of the UK chief van guards suggested the 25% UK allocation was for marketing reasons. The portfolios at the end of the paper have a bigger UK bias.

Thats very true, about ⅓, more in line with the original Life Strategy when launched in the UK.

There is a big secret technique financial companies use to making forecasts.

OhNoNotimAgain wrote:There is a big secret technique financial companies use to making forecasts.

And you can't tell us what that is because then you would be breaking a promise to someone to keep it a secret??

OhNoNotimAgain wrote:There is a big secret technique financial companies use to making forecasts.

Vanguard has offered their economist's estimates, not forecasts.