The Lemon Fool

Has been posted on Company News here; viewtopic.php?p=631935#p631935

BATS are a mainstay in my HYP, and I know others hereabouts hold them too, so thought this was worth a mention here.

Ian.

idpickering wrote:
The above hasn't gone down well it seems, with BATS being down 6% as I type.

I'm happy to hang onto my BATS shares to be honest, thinking longer term than just today.

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=16495&start=140#p631947


Did you still own those BATS shares Ian?

I seem to remember seeing a subsequent post saying that you'd had a change of heart and have now sold out completely, but the post seems to have disappeared?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess wrote:
Did you still own those BATS shares Ian?

I seem to remember seeing a subsequent post saying that you'd had a change of heart and have now sold out completely, but the post seems to have disappeared?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

After you posted, I did a search based on 'author'. I found a post where idpickering was in general discussion with Dod.

Ian mentioned he had sold out of BATS today. His post was still there AFTER your post. Now, the post is gone!


( missing posts....this is not WhatsApp you know )

monabri wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:
Did you still own those BATS shares Ian?

I seem to remember seeing a subsequent post saying that you'd had a change of heart and have now sold out completely, but the post seems to have disappeared?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

After you posted, I did a search based on 'author'. I found a post where idpickering was in general discussion with Dod.

Ian mentioned he had sold out of BATS today. His post was still there AFTER your post. Now, the post is gone!


( missing posts....this is not WhatsApp you know )

I get why the mods act as they do. My fickleness etc is hardly company news. It’s ok though, I get it.

Ian.

Itsallaguess wrote:

idpickering wrote:The above hasn't gone down well it seems, with BATS being down 6% as I type.

I'm happy to hang onto my BATS shares to be honest, thinking longer term than just today.

Did you still own those BATS shares Ian?

I seem to remember seeing a subsequent post saying that you'd had a change of heart and have now sold out completely, but the post seems to have disappeared?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS) – Annual Dividend growth over time

Year End  | Dividend  | 1 Year  | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years
31-Dec-23 | 230.8800  |   6.01% |   3.14% |   3.41% |    4.95% |    9.33%
31-Dec-22 | 217.8000  |   1.02% |   2.37% |  16.82% |    4.91% |    9.86%
31-Dec-21 | 215.6000  |   2.47% |   3.37% |   4.94% |    5.48% |   10.01%
31-Dec-20 | 210.4000  |   3.65% |  28.10% |   6.44% |    6.30% |   10.42%
31-Dec-19 | 203.0000  |   4.00% |   6.22% |   6.51% |    7.39% |         
31-Dec-18 | 195.2000  |  95.00% |   8.22% |   6.51% |    8.84% |         
31-Dec-17 | 100.1000  | -40.91% | -12.24% |  -5.79% |    4.22% |         
31-Dec-16 | 169.4000  |  10.00% |   5.96% |   6.01% |   11.72% |         
31-Dec-15 | 154.0000  |   3.98% |   4.51% |   6.16% |   12.60% |         
31-Dec-14 | 148.1000  |   4.00% |   5.40% |   8.28% |   13.46% |         
31-Dec-13 | 142.4000  |   5.56% |   7.63% |  11.21% |   13.89% |         
31-Dec-12 | 134.9000  |   6.64% |  10.68% |  15.30% |   15.05% |         
31-Dec-11 | 126.5000  |  10.77% |  14.76% |  17.74% |   14.73% |         
31-Dec-10 | 114.2000  |  14.77% |  19.93% |  19.43% |   14.69% |         
31-Dec-09 |  99.5000  |  18.88% |  21.19% |  18.88% |          |         
31-Dec-08 |  83.7000  |  26.44% |  21.21% |  16.62% |          |         
31-Dec-07 |  66.2000  |  18.43% |  16.47% |  14.80% |          |         
31-Dec-06 |  55.9000  |  18.94% |  12.94% |  11.80% |          |         
31-Dec-05 |  47.0000  |  12.17% |  12.28% |  10.14% |          |         
31-Dec-04 |  41.9000  |   7.99% |   9.40% |         |          |         
31-Dec-03 |  38.8000  |  16.87% |  10.19% |         |          |         
31-Dec-02 |  33.2000  |   3.75% |         |         |          |         
31-Dec-01 |  32.0000  |  10.34% |         |         |          |         
31-Dec-00 |  29.0000  |         |         |         |          |         

With a current dividend yield of around 10.00%, why would anyone running a High Yield Portfolio (HYP) sell?

If there are those that have sold, in my view an incorrect decision but each to their own, I am intrigued to know why? And what does one replace such a splendid HYP holding with?

Enjoy!


Ian

I guess I am fortunate that my comments survived on the Company News Board. Anyway Ian, as I said, no Pickering about this time. How are you proposing to replace the income from BAT? My approach will I think be to cut my holdings in both tobacco cos by one third and probably move more into renewables or maybe, an ETF with US income shares, if I can find one.

Dod

IanTHughes wrote:

Itsallaguess wrote:Did you still own those BATS shares Ian?

I seem to remember seeing a subsequent post saying that you'd had a change of heart and have now sold out completely, but the post seems to have disappeared?

British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BATS) – Annual Dividend growth over time

Year End  | Dividend  | 1 Year  | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years
31-Dec-23 | 230.8800  |   6.01% |   3.14% |   3.41% |    4.95% |    9.33%
31-Dec-22 | 217.8000  |   1.02% |   2.37% |  16.82% |    4.91% |    9.86%
31-Dec-21 | 215.6000  |   2.47% |   3.37% |   4.94% |    5.48% |   10.01%
31-Dec-20 | 210.4000  |   3.65% |  28.10% |   6.44% |    6.30% |   10.42%
31-Dec-19 | 203.0000  |   4.00% |   6.22% |   6.51% |    7.39% |         
31-Dec-18 | 195.2000  |  95.00% |   8.22% |   6.51% |    8.84% |         
31-Dec-17 | 100.1000  | -40.91% | -12.24% |  -5.79% |    4.22% |         
31-Dec-16 | 169.4000  |  10.00% |   5.96% |   6.01% |   11.72% |         
31-Dec-15 | 154.0000  |   3.98% |   4.51% |   6.16% |   12.60% |         
31-Dec-14 | 148.1000  |   4.00% |   5.40% |   8.28% |   13.46% |         
31-Dec-13 | 142.4000  |   5.56% |   7.63% |  11.21% |   13.89% |         
31-Dec-12 | 134.9000  |   6.64% |  10.68% |  15.30% |   15.05% |         
31-Dec-11 | 126.5000  |  10.77% |  14.76% |  17.74% |   14.73% |         
31-Dec-10 | 114.2000  |  14.77% |  19.93% |  19.43% |   14.69% |         
31-Dec-09 |  99.5000  |  18.88% |  21.19% |  18.88% |          |         
31-Dec-08 |  83.7000  |  26.44% |  21.21% |  16.62% |          |         
31-Dec-07 |  66.2000  |  18.43% |  16.47% |  14.80% |          |         
31-Dec-06 |  55.9000  |  18.94% |  12.94% |  11.80% |          |         
31-Dec-05 |  47.0000  |  12.17% |  12.28% |  10.14% |          |         
31-Dec-04 |  41.9000  |   7.99% |   9.40% |         |          |         
31-Dec-03 |  38.8000  |  16.87% |  10.19% |         |          |         
31-Dec-02 |  33.2000  |   3.75% |         |         |          |         
31-Dec-01 |  32.0000  |  10.34% |         |         |          |         
31-Dec-00 |  29.0000  |         |         |         |          |         

With a current dividend yield of around 10.00%, why would anyone running a High Yield Portfolio (HYP) sell?

If there are those that have sold, in my view an incorrect decision but each to their own, I am intrigued to know why? And what does one replace such a splendid HYP holding with?

Enjoy!


Ian

Like many ultra high yield shares, because of the risk to capital values.

Dod

idpickering wrote:I get why the mods act as they do. My fickleness etc is hardly company news. It’s ok though, I get it.

Ian.

Your portfolio...your rules, you decide what gets bought/sold..not my place to criticise .
I was merely responding to IAAG's post.

( I hope your 'spidey sense' is not correct )

monabri wrote:

idpickering wrote:I get why the mods act as they do. My fickleness etc is hardly company news. It’s ok though, I get it.

Ian.

Your portfolio...your rules, you decide what gets bought/sold..not my place to criticise .
I was merely responding to IAAG's post.

( I hope your 'spidey sense' is not correct )

Thanks for that. I topped up some of my other holdings with the dosh, renewables and LAND, and LXI etc. I don’t claim to be an expert, just following my gut instinct that’s all.

Ian.

Dod101 wrote:

IanTHughes wrote:With a current dividend yield of around 10.00%, why would anyone running a High Yield Portfolio (HYP) sell?

If there are those that have sold, in my view an idiotic decision but each to their own, I am intrigued to know why? And what does one replace such a splendid HYP holding with?

Like many ultra high yield shares, because of the risk to capital values.

Of course, it is a Value Portfolio not a High Yield Portfolio (HYP).

But I am still intrigued as to why anyone would sell after the market has already marked down the price. Surely Capital has already been lost!

Mind you, during decades within the Financial Services industry, we certainly loved such "Retail Investor Trading". It paid our bonuses!

Enjoy!


Ian

IanTHughes wrote:But I am still intrigued as to why anyone would sell after the market has already marked down the price. Surely Capital has already been lost!

Perhaps they have observed a trend and consider it likely to continue. And it's not just chartism here; smoking is in a terminal decline. If you have a short time horizon, you might be happy with the income. But your mileage might vary.

MrFoolish wrote:

IanTHughes wrote:But I am still intrigued as to why anyone would sell after the market has already marked down the price. Surely Capital has already been lost!

Perhaps they have observed a trend and consider it likely to continue. And it's not just chartism here; smoking is in a terminal decline. If you have a short time horizon, you might be happy with the income. But your mileage might vary.

The way I see it there was clearly a massive shift as smoking was banned in pubs etc. (and thank heavens it was, as a non-smoker it transformed my life very much for the better). But I do notice that people have not stopped completely. Also, vaping has clearly increased, whether it will continue to do so is of course unclear. Any relaxation in legalised drugs will I suspect provide an opportunity for the likes of British American Tobacco. Abroad (of the UK) people are smoking like there was no tomorrow. Doubtless that too will decline, but not I feel in the timescales that interest me in my lifetime.

Chris
(I hold and will top-up if called so to do by my-spreadsheet-that-is-to-be-obeyed.)

csearle wrote:Also, vaping has clearly increased, whether it will continue to do so is of course unclear.

But there must be a gazillon Chinese manufacturers who could make a vaping atomiser and sell them on eBay. I don't see how the existing big tobacco manufacturers are going to maintain a stranglehold in this market. Ironically they benefitted from the advertising ban on cigarettes and the brand loyalty of the punters. I'm not sure they'll get this lucky a second time.

MrFoolish wrote:

csearle wrote:Also, vaping has clearly increased, whether it will continue to do so is of course unclear.

But there must be a gazillon Chinese manufacturers who could make a vaping atomiser and sell them on eBay. I don't see how the existing big tobacco manufacturers are going to maintain a stranglehold in this market. Ironically they benefitted from the advertising ban on cigarettes and the brand loyalty of the punters. I'm not sure they'll get this lucky a second time.

Maybe then I'll start participating in legalising marijuana protests to help sustain my dividends? C.

I sold my BATS earlier this year, above original cost price (it isn't now). If there were any doubts that tobaccos had entered a long term terminal decline, there shouldn't be now. A £25bn write down?? - that's roughly half its market cap.

Meanwhile, its yield plods steadily towards 2*CTY...

moorfield wrote:
I sold my BATS earlier this year, above original cost price (it isn't now).

If there were any doubts that tobaccos had entered a long term terminal decline, there shouldn't be now. A £25bn write down?? - that's roughly half its market cap.

I sold out in February of this year, and the BATS price has dropped 27% since that time.

[Deletion]

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail ... 023-12-06/

Chief Executive Tadeu Marroco described the move as "accounting catching up with reality."

That's an astonishing statement for a CEO to make. He has more or less admitted that the books have been cooked for some time.

What else is there that we don't know about? - is I imagine the question behind yesterday's drop. Alarm bells.

Itsallaguess wrote:
I sold out in February of this year, and the BATS price has dropped 27% since that time.

[Deletion]

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I note the smiley, but don't appreciate the mocking sarcasm. It's my right to have a change of mind re my holding BATS or not.

Ian.

moorfield wrote:https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/bat-takes-315-bln-charge-us-cigarette-brands-2023-12-06/

Chief Executive Tadeu Marroco described the move as "accounting catching up with reality."

That's an astonishing statement for a CEO to make. He has more or less admitted that the books have been cooked for some time.

What else is there that we don't know about? - is I imagine the question behind yesterday's drop. Alarm bells.

On the one hand, the CEO should be commended for his candour but he is admitting that the accounts have been overstating the value of their brands for some time. No analyst bothered of course to question this in the past, surprise, surprise. I would think there are going to be lots of returns to shareholders for some time to come but at the cost of capital.

I have held BAT for a very long time and cannot see me losing money on a sale if I go back far enough. They are held in an ISA so joy of joys no need to worry about paying CGT.

Dod